Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.
American journal of human genetics. 2023 Jun 07 [Epub ahead of print]
Burcu F Darst, Jiayi Shen, Ravi K Madduri, Alexis A Rodriguez, Yukai Xiao, Xin Sheng, Edward J Saunders, Tokhir Dadaev, Mark N Brook, Thomas J Hoffmann, Kenneth Muir, Peggy Wan, Loic Le Marchand, Lynne Wilkens, Ying Wang, Johanna Schleutker, Robert J MacInnis, Cezary Cybulski, David E Neal, Børge G Nordestgaard, Sune F Nielsen, Jyotsna Batra, Judith A Clements, Australian Prostate Cancer BioResource, Henrik Grönberg, Nora Pashayan, Ruth C Travis, Jong Y Park, Demetrius Albanes, Stephanie Weinstein, Lorelei A Mucci, David J Hunter, Kathryn L Penney, Catherine M Tangen, Robert J Hamilton, Marie-Élise Parent, Janet L Stanford, Stella Koutros, Alicja Wolk, Karina D Sørensen, William J Blot, Edward D Yeboah, James E Mensah, Yong-Jie Lu, Daniel J Schaid, Stephen N Thibodeau, Catharine M West, Christiane Maier, Adam S Kibel, Géraldine Cancel-Tassin, Florence Menegaux, Esther M John, Eli Marie Grindedal, Kay-Tee Khaw, Sue A Ingles, Ana Vega, Barry S Rosenstein, Manuel R Teixeira, NC-LA PCaP Investigators , Manolis Kogevinas, Lisa Cannon-Albright, Chad Huff, Luc Multigner, Radka Kaneva, Robin J Leach, Hermann Brenner, Ann W Hsing, Rick A Kittles, Adam B Murphy, Christopher J Logothetis, Susan L Neuhausen, William B Isaacs, Barbara Nemesure, Anselm J Hennis, John Carpten, Hardev Pandha, Kim De Ruyck, Jianfeng Xu, Azad Razack, Soo-Hwang Teo, Canary PASS Investigators , Lisa F Newcomb, Jay H Fowke, Christine Neslund-Dudas, Benjamin A Rybicki, Marija Gamulin, Nawaid Usmani, Frank Claessens, Manuela Gago-Dominguez, Jose Esteban Castelao, Paul A Townsend, Dana C Crawford, Gyorgy Petrovics, Graham Casey, Monique J Roobol, Jennifer F Hu, Sonja I Berndt, Stephen K Van Den Eeden, Douglas F Easton, Stephen J Chanock, Michael B Cook, Fredrik Wiklund, John S Witte, Rosalind A Eeles, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Stephen Watya, John M Gaziano, Amy C Justice, David V Conti, Christopher A Haiman
Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA. 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