Stratification of Intermediate-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Patients: Implications for Adjuvant Therapies.

There is an urgent need to provide a risk-stratification tool for intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), especially at the time of bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) shortage.

To assess whether patients with intermediate-risk NMIBC can be stratified into different risk groups, thereby providing a practical tool for the selection of the optimal adjuvant therapy, based on the individualized risk of disease progression.

This was a retrospective analysis of 636 patients with intermediate-risk NMIBC.

A multivariable Cox-regression model was built to evaluate the impact of each variable on recurrence and progression to muscle-invasive disease. A Cox-based nomogram to predict patient-specific probability of disease progression was performed, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate its clinical benefit.

Within a median follow-up of 92 mo (interquartile range 56-118), disease recurrence and progression occurred in 346 (54%) and 91 (14%) patients, respectively. On multivariable analysis, age, early recurrence (<12 mo), and tumor size≥3cm were found to be independent predictors of progression. The Harrell C-index of the model for the prediction of progression was 0.75 and exceeded that of the model proposed by the International Bladder Consultation Group. DCA showed superior net benefits for the nomogram compared with the strategies of treating all/none and previous predictive models. Limitations are inherent to the retrospective design.

We provided a risk-stratification tool that helps identify individual risk of disease progression in patients with intermediate-risk NMIBC. This tool outperforms standard strategies in the threshold probability range of interest and could help select the optimal intravesical therapy regimen based on the individual risk of disease progression.

In this study, we provided a practical tool for risk stratification in patients with intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This tool may help select the most appropriate adjuvant therapy (either bacillus Calmette-Guerin [BCG] or chemotherapy) based on patient and tumor characteristics, thus making a step forward toward the era of personalized medicine.

European urology focus. 2020 Jun 09 [Epub ahead of print]

Francesco Soria, David D'Andrea, Mohammad Abufaraj, Marco Moschini, Andrea Giordano, Kilian M Gust, Pierre I Karakiewicz, Marek Babjuk, Paolo Gontero, Shahrokh F Shariat

Division of Urology, Department of Surgical Sciences, San Giovanni Battista Hospital, University of Studies of Torino, Turin, Italy; Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria., Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria., Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Special Surgery, Jordan University Hospital, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan., Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Luzerner Kantonsspital, Luzern, Switzerland; Department of Urology, Urological Research Institute, Vita-Salute University, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy., Division of Urology, Department of Surgical Sciences, San Giovanni Battista Hospital, University of Studies of Torino, Turin, Italy., Division of Urology, University of Montreal Hospital Center, Montreal, Québec, Canada., Department of Urology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic., Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Special Surgery, Jordan University Hospital, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; Department of Urology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute for Urology and Reproductive Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia; Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA; Department of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address: .

A Nomogram to Stratify Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer for Adjuvant Therapy - Expert Commentary by Bishoy Faltas, MD 

A Risk Stratification Model for Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) - Expert Commentary by Bishoy Faltas, MD